Federal Reservations

Ben Bernanke wants prices to rise 2%. There are numerous problems with such a proposal, the first being increases in money supply sometimes lead to asset bubbles and not increases in prices of consumer goods. Indeed the Fed completely ignored (if not encouraged) the housing bubble because home prices are not in the CPI. A housing bubble and a housing crash was the result.

Originally from The Market Oracle

Everything I’ve been warning about regarding the fallout from global central bankers’ love affair with inflation is coming to fruition. Consumers are once again dealing with the fact that the cost of filling up their gas tank is eating a significant portion of their disposable income. The price of a barrel of oil is now soaring above $100 a barrel; just as it always has done when the Fed has gone on one of their counterfeiting sprees. And it’s not just dollars that have been eroding in value because the price of oil in Euros is now at a record high. The sad truth is that with each iteration of QE, either in the U.S. or around the globe, it has sent oil prices skyrocketing, inflation rising and the economy into the tank.

Originally from The Market Oracle

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke was once confronted by Ron Paul with the now famous question, “Is gold money?” Bernanke replied “no” and said central banks hold the precious metal as “tradition.” However, the Central Bank of Iran appears to disagree with Bernanke and is substituting gold for U.S. dollars.

Originally from The Market Oracle

Senator Jeff Sessions, ranking member of the Senate Budget Committee has pointed out that our per capita government debt is already larger than Greece's. Per person, our government owes over $49,000 compared to $38,937 per Greek citizen. Our debt has just reached 101% of our Gross Domestic Product. Our creditors see this and have quietly slowed down or stopped their lending to us. As a result, the Federal Reserve has been outright monetizing debt as a way to patch things together and keep the economy on life support a little longer. There is rapidly shrinking demand for our debt, and confidence in the dollar is falling. This phenomenon is hidden only by the fact that confidence in all other fiat currencies is falling faster.

Originally from The Market Oracle

The Fed does not like to surprise the markets. They telegraph policy changes well in advance. The coded language of Alan Greenspan has been replaced with plain english and press conferences under Bernanke. The Fed's monetary policy may be questionable but their strategy of being more transparent to the market has improved albeit far from perfect.

Originally from The Market Oracle

Another quiet week in the US equity market as the entire range for the week was between SPX 1352 and 1369. While the SPX did not make a new print high, above 1371, it did make a new closing high for the bull market. Now all four major US indices are in new bull market territory. For the week the SPX/DOW were 0.3%, and the NDX/NAZ were 0.6%. Asian markets gained 0.4%, European markets lost 0.2%, and the DJ World index was 0.9%. On the economic front it was a quiet mixed week. On the uptick: consumer sentiment, new home sales, the WLEI, and the monetary base made a new high. On the downtick: existing home sales, FHFA housing prices, the M1 multiplier, and weekly jobless claims rose. Next week we’ll get a look at the first revision of Q4 GDP, the FED’s beige book, Case-Shiller and PCE prices. Best to your weekend and week!

Originally from The Market Oracle

If you study the difference between real or inflation adjusted treasury yields as measured by TIPS and nominal or non inflation adjusted yields you come up with inflation expectations. The Fed has specifically referenced this analysis leading up to QE2. In fact the deflationary trend as measured by TIPS in the summer of 2010 was the basis for expanding their balance sheet.

Originally from The Market Oracle

History has shown us time and again that out of control money supply expansion creates inflation. In light of the trillions of synthetic dollars that have been injected into the economy by the Federal Reserve over the past five years, most observers (this one included) had expected prices to spiral upward. But in making these determinations, many of us forgot to factor in the supply side of the supply/demand equation. Inflation remains low now because of game changing events that have reduced the demand for money.

Originally from The Market Oracle

Since financial stocks make up 14% of the S&P 500 Index, it is difficult to sustain a rally without strength in banks and financial services firms. With the Fed and ECB opening up the liquidity fire hydrant in late December 2011, bank stocks experienced another in a series of monster bailout rallies. As outlined below, the Financials Select Sector ETF (XLF) may be poised to give back some gains over the coming sessions based on numerous factors including reduced odds of QE3.

Originally from The Market Oracle

By decree, by the privately owned Federal Reserve, zero interest rates are here to stay. You do not get to borrow at those rates, only the member banks do. In the latest currency swap (loan) from the Fed to the ECB, European Central Bank, as we noted in previous issues over the last two months, that Europe has been forced to join the Anglo-American system. The system of zero interest rates and the continual creation of money and credit. Due to the Fed’s ability to create endless supplies of money and credit it eventually took over the control of ECB and European monetary policy. These policies starkly point out the zero interest rates and monetary policy of endless money creation is the path to be taken probably by all in the system to lesser or greater degrees. That means no savings and that leaves speculation and the purchase of gold and silver related assets.

Originally from The Market Oracle