Federal Reservations

Behind the scenes at Jackson Hole, Fed officials, foreign bankers and outside officials will try to answer the puzzle of why the economy has stalled.

Originally from MarketWatch

Behind the scenes at Jackson Hole, Fed officials, foreign bankers and outside officials will try to answer the puzzle of why the economy has stalled.

Originally from MarketWatch

Behind the scenes at Jackson Hole, Fed officials, foreign bankers and outside officials will try to answer the puzzle of why the economy has stalled.

Originally from MarketWatch

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks tumbled on Thursday as a sharp drop in oil fueled an already weak market that faltered after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's downbeat comments a day earlier.

Originally from Reuters: Business News

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks tumbled on Thursday as a sharp drop in oil fueled an already weak market that faltered after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's downbeat comments a day earlier.

Originally from Reuters: Business News

Just thinking out loud ...

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke argued that the recent slowdown was mostly due to temporary factors. From the FOMC statement: "The slower pace of the recovery reflects in part factors that are likely to be temporary, including the damping effect of higher food and energy prices on consumer purchasing power and spending as well as supply chain disruptions associated with the tragic events in Japan."

I also think we will see some pickup in the 2nd half of 2011, although I think the recovery will remain sluggish and choppy.

There has been some progress on the supply chain issues, and oil and gasoline prices have fallen sharply since late April.

So when will we see some better economic news?

Clearly we will see some ugly reports over the next few weeks. The regional manufacturing surveys will probably all show contraction in June, and that means the ISM manufacturing survey will be pretty bad, and maybe below 50 - indicating contraction nationally (to be released Friday, July 1st).

The May Personal Income and Outlays (Monday, June 27th) will be weak (May was a tough month), and there is little indication that the June employment report will be strong (Friday July 8th).

However, the Pending Home sales index (Weds, June 29th) will probably show a decent rebound from April. And several house price indexes have shown a bounce in house prices in April including the FHFA index released today.

U.S. house prices rose 0.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from March to April, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s monthly House Price Index.

Of course the FHFA index is based on GSE houses only, and almost everyone follows the Case-Shiller index now (Tuesday June 28th).

Even though Case-Shiller is a three month average - and the April report is for February, March and April - it is likely that Case-Shiller will be less negative in April than the previous months, and maybe even slightly positive. Seasonally April is usually one of the worst months of the year for the Case-Shiller index, so a less negative reading would be viewed as a positive.

And auto sales (Friday, July 1st) will probably show a rebound in June after the sharp falloff in May. From the Detroit News: GM will have 'good' sales month in June, exec says

"GM is going to have a good month — and I will leave it at that ... I feel good about June, and Ford does, too," [General Motors North American President Mark] Reuss said.

Ford Americas President Mark Fields told reporters earlier this week that June is "off to a good start."

But for manufacturing in general it might be some time before we see some more positive reports - the earliest would be mid-July, but it might not be until August or later.

And although gasoline prices are falling, prices are still much higher than earlier this year - and still above the levels in March. Consumption was somewhat weak in March, and that was when we saw the sharp decline in consumer sentiment. So falling gasoline prices will help, but consumption will probably still be fairly weak.

Last year at this time I was looking for weaker reports, and this year I'm looking for slightly better reports. Of course, as I mentioned above, some of the ugly reports are still coming (ISM manufacturing, Q2 GDP, etc) - but I think we will see a little better news here and there. I'm just starting to figure out when (and if) we will see a little pickup.

Unfortunately, even if the news is a little better, the recovery will still be sluggish ... (and remember, I have no crystal ball).

Originally from Calculated Risk

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, during his press conference, said the central bank didn't have a precise read on why the U.S. economy is slowing down but notes that it expects a pick-up by 2013. He also said a default by Greece could pose risks to the European and global financial system but he said U.S. banking exposure was "small." Money market funds, on the other hand, have "substantial" exposure to core European banks that could be impacted by the Greek situation. Bernanke also again lauded the idea of a formal inflation target, which he said could help anchor expectations, but he said nothing was imminent and pointed out that the central bank would need public, Congressional and White House "buy-in" before it proceeded.

Originally from MarketWatch

The Federal Reserve's controversial decision this month to buy $600 billion in Treasury notes came against the backdrop of a "troubling" slowdown in U.S. economic growth and "too low" inflation and employment, a top Fed official said on Tuesday.

Originally from All News, Video and Posts related to TOPIC: Federal Reserve

Although economic activity showed continued growth, the Federal Reserve's 12 districts recounted "widespread signs of deceleration," according to the latest beige book released Wednesday.

The report, which is based on information collected on or before Aug. 20, showed moderate growth across most districts expect for those of New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, Atlanta and Chicago, which noted some slowdown in overall economic activity.

As expected, the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit continued to drag on home sales, which also negatively impacted construction activity. Meanwhile, the still-sluggish commercial real estate sector began to show some signs of stabilization....

Originally from TheStreet

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. growth slowed over the summer, but some sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing held up better than others, according to the Federal Reserve's latest report on the economy.

Originally from MarketWatch