Federal Reservations

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Feb 3, 2012. (table is sortable by assets, state, etc.)

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

Quiet week for the Unofficial Bank List with no closings, one voluntary liquidation, and one addition. The list is unchanged at 958 institutions but assets increased by nearly $600 million to $389.6 billion. The First National Bank of Ordway, Ordway, CO ($45 million) underwent a voluntary liquidation in late January. The sole addition was Community West Bank, National Association, Goleta, CA ($643 million Ticker: CWBC) after the OCC issued a Consent Order against the bank. The only other change was a Prompt Corrective Action order issued by the Federal Reserve against Bank of Bartlett, Bartlett, TN ($371 million). Next week will likely be quiet as well.

Earlier Employment posts:
• January Employment Report: 243,000 Jobs, 8.3% Unemployment Rate
• Graphs: Unemployment Rate, Participation Rate, Jobs added
• Employment Summary, Part Time Workers, and Unemployed over 26 Weeks
• Construction Employment, Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education and Diffusion Indexes
• All Employment Graphs

Originally from Calculated Risk

The Chairman of The DCCC (Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) Steve Israel, who is supposed to be representing NY’s 2nd Congressional District (where I live), never met a Progressive anti-Semitic or anti-Israel group that he did not embrace.  The Long Island Congressman’s latest “love affair” is with Occupy Wall Street whose members have displayed a hatred of both the Jews and the Jewish State.

The DCCC run by Israel features a petition supporting Occupy Wall Street which is looking for 100,000 signatures in support of Occupy Wall Street

Its hard to believe that Congressman Israel hasn’t seen any of the news reports of hatred coming out of the Occupy Wall Street movement.

For example this New York Protester who claims that one small minority controls the banks, the judiciary, American Politics, and represent over 50% of all billionaires in the country.

“The Jews who represent only 2% of the population…have pooled their money together an now control all the the finances of America”

When Michael Moore was covered by MSNBC as he spoke from an Occupy Wall Street protest, he was joined by anti-Israel protesters.

This little clip came from the Los Angeles version of the protests Steve Israel is supporting. Meet Patricia McAllister who is not only an Occupy Wall Street protester, but she also works for the LA Schools:

“I think that the Zionist Jews, who are running these big banks and our Federal Reserve, which is not run by the federal government… they need to be run out of this country.”

As reported by Carl in Jerusalem in his blog Israel Matzav one of Occupy Wall Street’s organizers, Kalle Lasn, has a history of anti-Jewish writing.

Back in 2004, he wrote a highly controversial Adbusters article entitled “Why Won’t Anyone Say They Are Jewish?” which peddled some of the more feverish theories about American Jews, neoconservatism, and the Bush administration

If Carl could find that out from thousands of miles away in Jerusalem, its hard to believe that Steve Israel couldn’t find that out living 40 miles away from the NYC rally.

In  Chicago, the Steve Israel supported Occupy Wall Street protest joined up with a Destroy Israel march.  As reported by Rebelpundit:

Hatem Abudayyeh, a local pro-Palestinian agitator, rose to stage to address the crowd regarding Israel and American imperialism. He referred to Benjamin Netanyahu as a “fool” for his recent address to the U.N. General Assembly, and cheered the effectiveness of the global boycott and divestment in Israel, which he said was successfully putting a “dent in Israel’s indemnity over Palestine and the Arab world.” During the speech, members of the radical left-wing Jewish Voice for Peace, an organization on which noted socialist Noam Chomsky happens to sit on the board, passed out flyers that read at the top, “Be a Passivist (sic), be a Nonviolent Activist, Refuse to Pay Taxes, Destroy Israel!”

This is not the first anti-Israel/anti-Semitic cause backed by Steve Israel, who represents a district with a large liberal Jewish population. When President Obama was trying to push the anti-Israel group J-Street down the throats of the pro-Israel community, the Long Island Congressman lent his name to the Organization. He didn’t care that the group wanted President Obama to begin talks with the terrorist group Hamas and ease up the Iranian sanctions. Later on when J-Street tried to convince the US Congress to accept the Goldstone Report, a one sided UN Report with trumped up charges of Israeli War Crimes during the Gaza war, Congressman Israel was silent about the group for which he lent his support.

As President Obama began to implement his anti-Israel foreign policy, Steve Israel who never before had been reluctant to speak out in support of Israel, was strangely silent. Even as Republicans began to stand up to support the Jewish State, Congressman Israel said nothing. His silence is the result of his inability to have a thought independent of the Administration. This past May when President Obama made his one sided anti-Israel Middle East there was plenty of criticism regarding Obama’s call to begin negotiations with Israel ceding the disputed territories, but none of it was from DNCC Chair Steve Israel.

And lets not forget the fact Congressman Israel accepts campaign funds from a man convicted for smuggling weapons to Iran, a country threatening to destroy the Jewish State.

I do not believe that Congressman Israel believes in the Antisemitic/anti-Israel Stance of Occupy Wall Street, nor does he agree with the stances of J-Street or the Iranians his donor was convicted of arming.  In fact there is no evidence that he agrees with the President’s anti-Israel policies which he remains silent about.  No, the DNCC Chairman is much worse than that. Steve Israel is a political hack, who abandons the Jewish State and the Jewish people, not because of an actual belief but because he wants to get ahead in the Democratic Party political organization.

Sadly here in New York’s Second 2nd Congressional District, we do not have a Congressman who represents this slice of Long Island, instead Steve Israel believes his role is to represent the national Democratic Party as well as everything this President says and does.

Originally from Big Government

Note: this is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Oct 14, 2011.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

After several changes, the Unofficial Problem Bank List finished the week with 979 institutions and assets of $403.8 billion. A year ago, there were 875 institutions with assets of $401.6 billion on the list. This week, there were five removals and one addition.

The addition this week is The Savannah Bank, National Association, Savannah, GA ($737 million Ticker: SAVB). Also, the Federal Reserve issued a Prompt Corrective Action order against Anchor Commercial Bank, North Palm Beach, FL ($143 million), which has been operating under a Written Agreement since March 2010.

Among the removals are The Elgin State Bank, Elgin, IL ($277 million), which merged on an unassisted basis with St. Charles Bank & Trust Company, Saint Charles, IL. The other removals were the four failed banks -- First State Bank, Cranford, NJ ($204 million); Piedmont Community Bank, Gray, GA ($202 million); Country Bank, Aledo, IL ($191 million); and Blue Ridge Savings Bank, Inc., Asheville, NC ($161 million). All of these failures were costly relative to the failed bank assets at more than 22 percent. Moreover, Piedmont Community Bank and Country Bank resolution costs were around 35 percent of their respective assets. While the Unofficial Problem Bank List has trended down over the past three months, failure continues as the primary removal method.

Yesterday:
• Summary for Week Ending Oct 14th
• Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in September
• Schedule for Week of Oct 16th

Originally from Calculated Risk

Note: this is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Oct 7, 2011.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

As anticipated, it was a quiet week for changes to the Unofficial Problem Bank List. This week, there were three removals, which leaves the list with 983 institutions and assets of $404.1 billion. A year ago, there were 877 institutions with assets of $417.3 billion.

The removals include the Federal Reserve terminating an action against State Bank Financial, La Crosse, MN ($303 million) and the two failures this week -- The Riverbank, Wyoming, MN ($417 million); and Sun Security Bank, Ellington, MO ($356 million).

Earlier:
• Summary for Week Ending Oct 7th
• Schedule for Week of Oct 9th

Originally from Calculated Risk

Note: this is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Sept 9, 2011.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

As anticipated, it was a quiet week for changes to the Unofficial Problem Bank List. This week, there were two removals and one addition, which leaves the list with 986 institutions and assets of $402.7 billion. A year ago, there were 849 institutions with assets of $415.3 billion.

The removals were the failed The First National Bank of Florida, Milton, FL ($297 million) and Clarkston State Bank, Clarkston, MI ($111 million Ticker: HRTB), which had its actions terminated by the FDIC. The addition is Community Pride Bank, Isanti, MN ($92 million), which has been subject to a Consent Order by the State of Minnesota and not the FDIC since May 2010. This action just came to light when the Federal Reserve issued a Written Agreement against the bank's parent holding company.

Next week, we anticipate the OCC will release its actions through mid-August, which should contribute to more changes to the list.

Earlier:
• Schedule for Week of Sept 11th
• Summary for Week ending September 9th

Originally from Calculated Risk

Note: this is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Aug 13, 2011.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

The total number of institutions on the Unofficial Problem Bank Lists remains unchanged from last week at 988. However, there were two removals and two additions. Aggregate assets declined slightly by $391 million to $411.3 billion.

The removals include the failed The First National Bank of Olathe, Olathe, KS ($572 million) and Citizens Bank of Spencer, Tenn., Spencer, TN ($46 million), which merged on an unassisted basis. The additions were State Bank of Herscher, Herscher, IL ($195 million) and Texas Coastal Bank, Pasadena, TX ($32 million).

The other change is the issuance of a Prompt Corrective Action order by the Federal Reserve against Bank of the Eastern Shore, Cambridge, MD ($190 million). Next week, we anticipate the OCC releasing its actions through the middle of July. This will be the first monthly release after the merger of the OCC with the OTS.

It seems like the number of mergers has increased recently.

Earlier:
• Summary for Week Ending August 12th
• Schedule for Week of August 14th

Originally from Calculated Risk

Note: this is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Aug 5, 2011.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

Busy week for removals with the two failures this Friday night and after the FDIC updated its structure database to reflect some recent unassisted mergers. The removals plus one addition leave the Unofficial Problem Bank List at 988 institutions with assets of $411.6 billion, down from 995 institutions with assets of $415.4 billion last week.

The removals from failure include Bank of Whitman, Colfax, WA ($608 million) and Bank of Shorewood, Shorewood, IL ($120 million). Consistent with an American Banker article published in the past month that said regulators are pushing troubled banks to find merger partners, there were six removals because of unassisted mergers including Wilmington Trust FSB, Baltimore, MD ($2.3 billion); Sunrise Bank, San Diego, CA ($232 million); Jefferson Bank, Dallas, TX ($205 million); Bank of the Northwest, Bellevue, WA ($146 million); Cornerstone Bank & Trust, National Association, Carrollton, IL ($144 million); and Heritage Bank, National Association, Holstein, IA ($137 million).

The flow of new additions will become lumpier with the shuttering of the OTS as the OCC and FDIC only release actions on a monthly basis instead of when they are issued like the Federal Reserve and OTS.

Employment posts yesterday (with graphs):
• July Employment Report: 117,000 Jobs, 9.1% Unemployment Rate
• Employment Summary, Part Time Workers, and Unemployed over 26 Weeks
• More Employment (Duration, Education, Diffusion Index)
• Employment graph gallery

Originally from Calculated Risk

Sometimes it helps to make a list of issues and hopefully start to check them off. Unfortunately the list has been getting longer, and some of the downside risks will be with us for some time.

Here is a list - with a few short comments:

• Risks from the earthquake in Japan.

• Higher oil prices and a possible supply shock.

Although U.S. oil prices have fallen under $100 per barrel this morning, prices are still high and a risk to the economy. As Professor Hamilton noted over the weekend, the recent sharp decline in consumer sentiment is probably tied to the high price of gasoline.

In addition to the events in Libya, Saudi Troops Enter Bahrain to Help Put Down Unrest

• U.S. Housing Crisis.

House prices are at new post-bubble lows and still falling.

And there is probably more distressed supply coming with 11.1 million U.S. residential properties with negative equity and about 4.3 million mortgage loans are delinquent or in the foreclosure process.

Although foreclosure activity has slowed - because of foreclosure processing issues - distressed sales are expected to increase again later this year.

• The European financial crisis.

Although an agreement was reached late Friday night on the loans to Greece - to extend the term and lower the interest rate - and also to allow the EFSF to intervene in the primary bond market, this just buys more time.

The Greek ten year yield is down to 12.3%. The Irish ten year yield is at 9.4% - even with no interest rate cut for Ireland.

There was some speculation last week that Portugal would request a bailout over the weekend. That didn't happen. Here are the Portuguese 2 year, 5 year and 10 year bond yields from Bloomberg. All are lower today after rising sharply last week.

Here are the Ten Year yields for Spain, and Belgium. Both lower too.

• State and local government cutbacks.

• Possible Federal government cutbacks (even shutdown).

Although the "debt ceiling" debate is just political grandstanding, you never know what will happen (I doubt the U.S. will default). It sounds like another short term budget deal will be reached, and it is but it is possible that more cuts will be enacted this year - slowing growth in 2011.

• Inflation (a two sided coin).

Although I think core inflation will remain below the Fed's target all year, it is possible that inflation could pick up more - or that policymakers will overreact. I think it is likely the Fed will remove the "the measures of underlying inflation have been trending downward" sentence in the FOMC statement tomorrow (see FOMC Preview), but I think we are still a long ways from tighter policy.

Originally from Calculated Risk

Note: this is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Feb 18, 2011.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

Despite well wishes for a safe banking week, it was anything but with several failures and numerous additions to the Unofficial Problem Bank List. In all, there were six removals and 13 additions this week, which leaves the Unofficial Problem Bank List with 951 institutions with assets of $418.6 billion.

Assets increased by $5.6 billion, which is the largest weekly increase since November 5, 2010. Furthermore, the asset total of $418.6 billion is the highest it has been in nearly three months when they were $419.6 billion at November 19, 2010.

Among the removals are an action termination against Eaton National Bank & Trust Co., Eaton, OH ($190 million) and an unassisted merger as American State Bank, Tulsa, OK ($13 million) merged into Peoples Bank, Tulsa, OK.

All of the failures this week were on the Unofficial Problem Bank List and they include Habersham Bank, Clarkesville, GA ($396 million Ticker: HABC); San Luis Trust Bank, FSB, San Luis Obispo, CA ($306 million Ticker: SNLS); Citizens Bank of Effingham, Springfield, GA ($221 million); and Charter Oak Bank, Napa, CA ($136 million). Interestingly, Habersham Bank must have been on double secret probation with the FDIC as they never disclosed the Cease & Desist order Habersham Bank was under. In addition, the OTS issued a Prompt Corrective Acton order against San Luis Trust Bank, FSB only nine days before its failure.

As anticipated, the OCC released its actions through the middle of January 2011, which contributed to the numerous additions this week. Among the 13 additions are Wilmington Trust FSB, Baltimore, MD ($1.8 billion Ticker: WL); Southern Community Bank and Trust, Winston Salem, NC ($1.7 billion Ticker: SCMF); Queensborough National Bank & Trust Company, Louisville, GA ($941 million); Horry County State Bank, Loris, SC ($804 million Ticker: HCFB); and One Bank & Trust, National Association, Little Rock, AR ($439 million).

Other changes include Prompt Corrective Action orders issued by the Federal Reserve against the Bank of Whitman, Colfax, WA ($722 million) and Idaho Banking Company, Boise, ID ($195 million) and the OCC against Western Springs National Bank and Trust, western Springs, IL ($196 million).

Next week we anticipate the FDIC will release its actions through January 2011. Perhaps we should not issue any well wishes for a safe banking for the upcoming week given the carnage this past week.

CR Note: The FDIC will probably release the Q4 Quarterly Banking Profile in the next couple of weeks, and that will include the number of banks on the official problem bank list at the end of 2010.

Originally from Calculated Risk

Not all data are created equal.

For me, the ‘A List’ for understanding the current situation includes the monthly employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and the quarterly GDP report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). My ‘B List’ usually includes several housing reports, the ISM manufacturing survey, retail sales and the monthly Personal Income and Outlays report from the BEA.

This brings up a key point: these lists are not static.

As an example, right now initial weekly unemployment claims is ‘B List’ data. This is a high frequency indicator for the labor market. I watch this closely when I think a recession is possible, during a recession, and then during the early stages of a recovery (like right now). During an expansion, initial weekly claims are ‘D List’ at best; “Don’t call us, we’ll call you!”

Watching initial weekly claims helped me call the 2007 recession in real time. However this data is not forward looking. At the end of 2006, when I predicted a recession would start in 2007, I wasn’t using weekly claims at all – I was mostly using housing data and my sense of how the housing bust would play out.

Deciding what data is important and when comes from experience.

The data released this morning – the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Purchase Activity Index and the ADP Employment report – are pretty much ‘D-List’ data. They give us hints about other economic data (the MBA index about home sales, and ADP about the BLS employment report). Some people would argue either or both are a little more important – OK, call them ‘C-List’ data (I’m not here to quibble, but ‘D-List’ made for a better post title).

The MBA index has been very weak since the end of the housing tax credit last year. This weakness suggests that home sales will be weak for at least the next couple of months (homebuyers usually apply for a mortgage 30 to 60 days before closing on a home purchase). It is also important to remember that a fairly large percentage of recent homebuyers have been paying cash (many of these purchases are low end homes being bought by investors) and cash buyers aren’t captured by the MBA index.

It is also important not to use data in a vacuum, and the MBA index provides an excellent example. Here are a couple of articles quoting former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan in 2006:

From Bloomberg in August 2006: Greenspan Says `Worst' May Be Past in U.S. Housing

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the ``worst may well be over'' for the U.S. housing industry that's suffering its worst downturn in more than a decade.

Greenspan, speaking at a conference in Calgary today, pointed to a ``flattening out'' of weekly mortgage applications after they went down ``very dramatically.''

And from Reuters in October 2006: Greenspan: Housing market worst may be over

The U.S. housing market appears to be emerging from its recent travails and the “worst may well be over,” former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan was quoted as saying on Friday.

“I suspect that we are coming to the end of this downtrend, as applications for new mortgages, the most important series, have flattened out,” Greenspan said at an event in Calgary, Canada ...

The housing downturn had just started, and I made fun of Greenspan's comments in 2006!

Here is a repeat of the MBA index graph from this morning:

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

You can see the "flattening out" in the middle of 2006, and the increase at the end of 2006 and again in 2007.

This brings up a couple of points:

• The MBA data was NEVER the “most important series”.

• In mid-2006, the MBA index did flatten out, and in late 2006 the index increased (and increased further in 2007). At that time I spoke with some mortgage brokers, and there was clear evidence of homebuyers applying for mortgages with multiple brokers - this lead to some double counting by the MBA. And in late 2006 the increase was because mortgage brokers started going out of business (this skewed the data, because the MBA samples only certain large brokers – and the large brokers were getting more applications as the weaker companies went under). I identified these flaws and stopped using the MBA index, but Greenspan blindly used the index and drew the wrong conclusion.

The lesson: Never listen to Greenspan Always ask if the data is being impacted by changes in behavior or sample.

Now to the ADP employment report: this report is intended to help predict the BLS employment numbers, but the record on a monthly basis is very spotty. Just look at December: The ADP report showed 297,000 private sector jobs added, but the BLS report only showed 113,000 private sector payroll jobs added (103,000 Total). Not close.

Here is the ADP purpose and methodology:

Employment is an intrinsically important statistic. Furthermore, financial markets react, sometimes strongly, to “surprises” in the BLS estimates of establishment employment that might signal future changes in monetary policy. Hence, information that helps analysts anticipate monthly changes in employment is valuable. ... The ADP National Employment Report ... can be used, in real time, to improve upon consensus forecasts of the monthly change in establishment employment.

The report sure doesn't seem useful in "real time" to improve on forecasts. Sometimes the ADP report is close. Sometimes it is not (like last month). The ADP data is from a statistical black box based partially on the BLS data (as opposed to a completely independent report of payroll jobs added), and it is not as useful as some analysts had hoped.

Right now I think the ADP report is suggesting stronger job growth (a good thing). The ADP report has averaged 217,000 jobs added per month over the last two months, and maybe that indicates the BLS report will be higher than expected (current expectations are for an increase of 150,000 payroll jobs in January). But the ADP report really isn’t useful in predicting the BLS numbers on a month to month basis. I just use it as a “hint”.

Originally from Calculated Risk