Federal Reservations

The New York Federal Reserve recently updated its “Probability of U.S. Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread” with treasury yield data through May 2011, and the Fed’s recession probability forecast through May 2012. The NY Fed’s Treasury model uses the spread between the yields on 10-year Treasury notes (3.17% in December) and 3-month Treasury bills (0.04%) to calculate the probability of a U.S. recession up to twelve months ahead (see details here).

The Fed’s model (data here) shows that … [visit site to read more] or compare Best Credit Cards and Balance Transfer Credit Cards

Originally from DailyMarkets.com

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Oil futures pared their advance and gold in electronic trading dipped further into the red Wednesday after minutes from the latest U.S. Federal Reserve meeting showed officials confident that the economy was on firmer footing at their January meeting and some officials wondered whether the Fed's bond-purchase plan could be scaled back. Crude for March delivery most recently added 62 cents, or 0.7%, to $84.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange; it had traded at $85.18 before the minutes were released. Gold for April delivery [gcj11] retreated $1.20, or 0.1%, to $1,373.80 an ounce; it had traded at $1,374.50 before the release. Gold settled at $1,375.10 an ounce.

Originally from MarketWatch

Investors await key economic data and the Federal Reserve’s monetary-policy meeting later this week. Oil futures settle at their lowest in nearly six weeks.

Originally from MarketWatch

Investors await key economic data and the Federal Reserve’s monetary-policy meeting later this week.

Originally from MarketWatch

Investors await key economic data and the Federal Reserve’s monetary-policy meeting later this week.

Originally from MarketWatch

Investors await key economic data and the Federal Reserve’s monetary-policy meeting later this week.

Originally from MarketWatch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks moderately added to losses Wednesday after a report on existing home sales showed a steeper-than-expected rise in September, bolstering the dollar. A stronger dollar can weigh on stocks, in part because it hurts the international sales of many U.S. conglomerates. Stocks had opened lower on reports the Federal Reserve may be more gradual in its next round of quantitative easing than some analysts anticipated. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 66 points, or 0.6%, to 11,104. The S&P 500 was down 6 points, or 0.5%, lower at 1,180. The Nasdaq Composite was down 0.9 point, or 0.03%, at 2,497.

Originally from MarketWatch

While Bernanke continues to deny the potential of an economic downturn and tries to convince the market that he can save the economy with his impotent monetary policy, reliable and trustworthy economists like Robert Shiller say the Fed is out of bullets and the risk of a double dip is “imminent”:

… [visit site to read more]

Originally from Daily Markets

Robert Shiller talks about the sharp falloff in home sales, the likelihood of a double-dip recession and what the Fed should do to stimulate the economy. The Big Interview

Originally from WSJ.com: Economy

Robert Shiller talks about the sharp falloff in home sales, the likelihood of a double-dip recession and what the Fed should do to stimulate the economy. The Big Interview

Originally from WSJ.com: Economy